Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/5/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DAMA) 2.A POSITION 2007/12/20 AT 1200 UTC : 17.4S / 83.8E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/21 00 UTC: 18.9S/85.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2007/12/21 12 UTC: 19.7S/86.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2007/12/22 00 UTC: 20.7S/88.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2007/12/22 12 UTC: 21.8S/88.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2007/12/23 00 UTC: 23.2S/89.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2007/12/23 12 UTC: 24.8S/89.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE WINDSHEAR, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REBUILT NEAR THE CENTRE ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO REACH THE MODERATE STORM STAGE. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE LAST HOURS, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES UNDER THE COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCES OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING SOUTH WEST MID LATITUDE TROUGH. THE WINDSHEAR HAS MOMENTALY DECREASED IN THE SYSTEM ENVIRONMENT. BUT THE FORECAST TRACK (AT 24/36 HOURS) LEADS THE SYSTEM WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A WEAKENING WITH INCREASING WINDSHEAR AND COOLER SSTS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN START TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.