Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/5/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DAMA) 2.A POSITION 2007/12/21 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8S / 86.0E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/21 12 UTC: 20.4S/88.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2007/12/22 00 UTC: 21.7S/89.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2007/12/22 12 UTC: 22.7S/89.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2007/12/23 00 UTC: 24.1S/90.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2007/12/23 12 UTC: 25.4S/89.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2007/12/24 00 UTC: 26.6S/89.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE LAST HOURS, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR EQUATORAL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN LATITUDES UNDER THE COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCES OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND AN APPROACHING SOUTH WEST MID LATITUDE TROUGH. THE FORECAST TRACK (AT 24/36 HOURS) LEADS THE SYSTEM WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR A WEAKENING WITH INCREASING WINDSHEAR AND COOLER SSTS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN START TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.