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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/5/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 5 (EX-DAMA)

2.A POSITION 2007/12/21 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3S / 88.2E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 200 SO: 200 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/12/21 18 UTC: 20.0S/89.7E TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2007/12/22 06 UTC: 22.2S/90.3E FILLING UP.
36H: 2007/12/22 18 UTC: 23.7S/91.0E FILLING UP.
48H: 2007/12/23 06 UTC: 25.0S/91.2E DISSIPATED.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 CI=2.5-

THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKEN SINCE THE END OF THE NIGHT. IT IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONGER VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND COLD SST. IT SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.