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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/5/20072008
1.A FILLING DEPRESSION 5 (EX-DAMA)

2.A POSITION 2007/12/21 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.3S / 89.3E
(TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/12/22 00 UTC: 21.6S/90.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, FILLING UP.
24H: 2007/12/22 12 UTC: 23.5S/91.5E DISSIPATED.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=1.5 CI=2.0-

CENTER IS BECOMING DIFFICULT TO LOCALIZE AS IT BECOMES LESS AND LESS DEFINED. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SEEMS TO SHOW THAT THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION IS VERY ELONGATED AND LOCALIZE MORE SOUTHEASTWARD. UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDSHEAR AND COLD SST, SYSTEM KEEPS ON WEAKENING RAPIDLY. IT SHOULD EXIT FROM THE AREA OF RESPONSABILITY OF RSMC LA REUNION TONIGHT AND THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD CURVE MORE SOUTHWARDS ACCORDING TO NWP MODELS.
LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM.