Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/6/20072008 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6 2.A POSITION 2007/12/30 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4S / 41.4E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/31 00 UTC: 18.1S/41.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2007/12/31 12 UTC: 19.0S/42.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/01/01 00 UTC: 19.4S/41.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/01/01 12 UTC: 19.6S/41.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/01/02 00 UTC: 19.8S/41.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/01/02 12 UTC: 20.4S/40.7E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.0- WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH, DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CONSOLIDATED SINCE 0200UTC IN THE NORTHEAST OF A THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. LLCC WAS EXPOSED BUT IS VERY RECENTLY UNDER THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONNARY SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING , DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS. AT 0900Z , IN THE ISLAND OF JUAN DE NOVA, MSLP HAS FALLED -2.7HPA WITHIN THE LAST 24 HEURES (-1.4 HPA FOR MORANDAVA AND -1.2 HPA FOR EUROPA ISLAND OVER THE SAME PERIOD). ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH A GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOW (GOOD TRADE WIND AND MONSOON FLOWS), WEAK SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE LINKED TO THE VICINITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL JET LOCATED SOUTH OF 25S AND SST NEAR 29 C TO 30 C. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS ANALYSE THIS LOW AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO DEEPEN IT PROGRESSIVELY. THIS LLCC IS EXPECTED TO STAY QUASI-STATIONNARY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN RECURVE SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES TOWARDS A TROUGH SHIFTING IN ITS SOUTHWEST. AT THIS STAGE, SYSTEM INTENSITY DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.