Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/6/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 2.A POSITION 2007/12/31 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.3S / 42.0E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/31 12 UTC: 18.8S/42.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/01/01 00 UTC: 19.2S/41.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/01/01 12 UTC: 19.7S/41.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/01/02 00 UTC: 20.3S/41.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/01/02 12 UTC: 21.3S/41.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/01/03 00 UTC: 22.5S/41.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.0 LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY (LAST ONE IS METOP OF 1900Z) WERE STILL SHOWING A LLCC OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS MOVED LITTLE WITH ONLY A SMALL EASTNORTHEASTWARDS DRIFT. HOWEVER SINCE 2300 UTC, NEW BURST OF CONVECTION (WITH TOP COLDER THAN -81°C ON IR IMAGERY) HAS BUILT AROUND THE CENTER. INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, BUT THE SYSTEM COULD BE NOW ON AN INTENSIFICATION TREND. AT 0000Z , IN THE ISLAND OF JUAN DE NOVA, MSLP VARIATION WITHIN THE LAST 24 HEURES IS IN THE -2 HPA RANGE. ENVIRONMENT IS STILL FAVORABLE, SO INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. DURING THE 01/01/08, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BUILT SOUTWESTWARD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND CONSEQUENTLY, IMPROVE THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THAT IS WHY INTENSIFICATION RATE IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN CLIMATOLOGY. THIS SYSTEM COULD BE CLOSED TO INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ABOUT TRACK, IT SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY TAKEN A MORE SOUTHERLY MOTION STILL AT LOW SPEED TODAY BEFORE ACCELERATING, MORE OBVIOUSLY DURING THE 02/01/08, AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS MOVING AWAY IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. 30/12Z NWP MODELS RUN HAS SLIGHTY MOVED THEIR TRACKS EASTWARDS. SO THAT IS THE CASE OF THE PRESENT GUIDANCE THAT IS CLOSED TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.