Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/6/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 2.A POSITION 2007/12/31 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.2S / 41.1E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2007/12/31 18 UTC: 18.0S/41.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/01/01 06 UTC: 18.6S/41.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/01/01 18 UTC: 19.5S/41.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/01/02 06 UTC: 20.4S/41.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/01/02 18 UTC: 21.4S/41.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/01/03 06 UTC: 22.4S/41.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5- LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN ESTIMATED WITH A GOOD PROXY ACCORDING TO MICRO-WAVE DATA (SSMI AT 0220 Z, WHICH SHOWS A BETTER ORGANZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION, AND A BETTER DEFINED CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION LIGHTLY EASTWARD OF THE LLCC). THIS CENTER IS TEMPORARILLY TRACKING WESTNORTWESTWARDS, AND IT SHOULD CURVE EASTWARDS, BEFORE TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY, AND ACCELERATING AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHIFTING EASTWARDS IN THE SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE. DURING THE 01/01/08, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BUILD SOUTWESTWARD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND IMPROVE THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, AND ALLOW A RAPID INTENSIFICATION OD THE SYSTEM.