Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/6/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 2.A POSITION 2007/12/31 AT 1200 UTC : 18.1S / 41.1E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/01 00 UTC: 18.0S/41.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/01/01 12 UTC: 18.4S/41.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/01/02 00 UTC: 19.2S/41.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/01/02 12 UTC: 20.0S/41.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/01/03 00 UTC: 21.2S/41.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/01/03 12 UTC: 22.5S/41.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5 LOCATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO MICRO-WAVE DATA (MAINLY TRMM AT 0710Z, WHICH SHOWS A GOOD ORGANZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION STILL LIGHLTY EAST OF THE LLCC). THIS CENTER IS TRACKING SLOWLY NORTWESTWARDS, IT SHOULD MAKE A SMALL LOOP ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES CENTERED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR) BEFORE TRACKING MORE CLEARLY SOUTHWARDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AFTER THE SHIF EASTWARDS OF THOSE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, FOLLOWED BY A POLAR TROUGH COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIC CHANNEL. IT SHOULD THEN START TO INTENSIFY RATHER RAPIDLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (SST BETWEEN 29 AND 30 CELSIUS DEGREES OVER THE FORECASTED TRACK, GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOWS AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOWS - SEE 200 HPA LEVEL). THE WEAKENING OF THE OF THE TRADE WINDS INFLOW (DU TO THE SHIFH OF HIGH PRESSURES) SHOULD BE COMPENSATED BY AN ENHANCED POLEWARDS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW (AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BUILD SOUTWESTWARD OF THE SYSTEM).