Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/6/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 2.A POSITION 2007/12/31 AT 1800 UTC : 18.8S / 41.3E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SO: 050 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/01 06 UTC: 19.1S/41.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/01/01 18 UTC: 19.6S/41.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/01/02 06 UTC: 20.1S/40.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/01/02 18 UTC: 20.7S/41.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/01/03 06 UTC: 21.5S/41.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/01/03 18 UTC: 22.3S/41.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5 LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN LOCATED THANKS TO MICROWAVE DATA (SSMI AT 0710Z/1626Z, WHICH SHOW A GOOD ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AND A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION STILL SLIGHLTY EAST OF THE LLCC). THIS CENTER IS ALMOST-STATIONARY, BUT SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWLY TRACKED SOUTHWARDS OVER THE LAST HOURS. IT SHOULD KEEP ON ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS OVER THE NEXT RANGES AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES CENTERED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR SHIFT EASTWARDS AND AS A TROUGH BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM (SST BETWEEN 29 AND 30 CELSIUS DEGREES ALONG THE FORECASTED TRACK, GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOWS AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOWS - REFER TO 200 HPA LEVEL). THE WEAKENING OF THE TRADE WINDS INFLOW (DUE TO THE SHIFT OF HIGH PRESSURES) SHOULD BE BALANCED BY AN ENHANCED POLEWARDS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW (AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BUILD SOUTWESTWARD OF THE SYSTEM).