Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/6/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ELNUS) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/01 AT 0000 UTC : 19.1S / 41.0E (NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 140 SE: 200 SO: 100 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/01 12 UTC: 19.6S/40.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/01/02 00 UTC: 20.3S/40.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/01/02 12 UTC: 21.3S/40.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/01/03 00 UTC: 22.2S/40.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/01/03 12 UTC: 23.2S/40.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/01/04 00 UTC: 24.4S/40.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5+ ELNUS SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 6/10 BANDING ON THE LAST IR IMAGERY AND HAS THEN REACHED THE MINIMAL STAGE OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM. THIS CENTER HAS SLOWLY TRACKED SOUTHWARDS OVER THE LAST HOURS. IT SHOULD KEEP ON ON TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS OVER THE NEXT RANGES AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES CENTERED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR SHIFT EASTWARDS AND AS A TROUGH BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM (SST BETWEEN 29 AND 30 CELSIUS DEGREES ALONG THE FORECASTED TRACK, GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOWS AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOWS - REFER TO 200 HPA LEVEL). THE WEAKENING OF THE TRADE WINDS INFLOW (DUE TO THE SHIFT OF HIGH PRESSURES) SHOULD BE BALANCED BY AN ENHANCED POLEWARDS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW (AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BUILD SOUTWESTWARD OF THE SYSTEM). HAPPY NEW YEAR