Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/6/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ELNUS) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/01 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9S / 40.9E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 240 SO: 160 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/01 18 UTC: 19.6S/40.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/01/02 06 UTC: 20.5S/40.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/01/02 18 UTC: 21.1S/40.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/01/03 06 UTC: 22.3S/40.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/01/03 18 UTC: 23.6S/41.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/01/04 06 UTC: 24.9S/40.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5+ ELNUS REMAINS SHOWING A CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 5/10 BANDING ON THE LAST IR IMAGERY AND HASN'T INTENSIFYED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE 0000Z. HOWEVER, 0430Z AND 0500Z VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS "HOT TOWERS" EXISTING IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, IT COULD BE A SIGN FOR A FASTER INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE NEXT HOURS. ELNUS REMAINS QUASI-STATIONNARY WITHIN THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TRACKING PROGRESSIVELY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN SOUTHWARDS AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES CENTERED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR SHIFT EASTWARDS AND AS A TROUGH BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM (SST BETWEEN 29 AND 30 CELSIUS DEGREES ALONG THE FORECASTED TRACK, GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOWS AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOWS - REFER TO 200 HPA LEVEL). THE WEAKENING OF THE TRADE WINDS INFLOW (DUE TO THE SHIFT OF HIGH PRESSURES) SHOULD BE BALANCED BY AN ENHANCED POLEWARDS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW (AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BUILD SOUTWESTWARD OF THE SYSTEM). BEST WISHES AND HAPPY NEW YEAR.