Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/6/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ELNUS) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/01 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9S / 40.3E (NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 240 SO: 160 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/02 00 UTC: 20.4S/39.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/01/02 12 UTC: 21.1S/40.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/01/03 00 UTC: 21.8S/40.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/01/03 12 UTC: 22.7S/40.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2008/01/04 00 UTC: 23.8S/40.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2008/01/04 12 UTC: 24.9S/40.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 AND CI=2.5+ ELNUS TRACKS AGAIN SOUTHWESTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TRACKING PROGRESSIVELY SOUTHWARDS AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES CENTERED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR SHIFT EASTWARDS AND AS A TROUGH BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DESPITE FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO ORGANIZE AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DID NOT CONSOLIDATE DURABLY OVER THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS (SST BETWEEN 29 AND 30 CELSIUS DEGREES ALONG THE FORECASTED TRACK, GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOWS AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOWS - REFER TO 200 HPA LEVEL). THE WEAKENING OF THE TRADE WINDS INFLOW (DUE TO THE SHIFT OF HIGH PRESSURES) SHOULD BE BALANCED BY AN ENHANCED POLEWARDS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW (AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BUILD SOUTWESTWARD OF THE SYSTEM). IF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, INCREASING OF THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WOULD NOT PERMIT IT TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. BEST WISHES AND HAPPY NEW YEAR.