Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/6/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ELNUS) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/01 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.9S / 39.9E (NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 160 SE: 240 SO: 160 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/02 06 UTC: 20.5S/39.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/01/02 18 UTC: 21.3S/39.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/01/03 06 UTC: 22.0S/40.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/01/03 18 UTC: 22.7S/40.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/01/04 06 UTC: 23.4S/41.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/01/04 18 UTC: 24.2S/41.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5- AND CI=2.5+ THE SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING LESS RAPIDLY THAN IT WAS FORECASTED, DUE TO WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, BADLY ANALIZED ON NWP MODELS, BUT EVIDENCED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THAT IMPEDES THE INTENSIFICATION AND REJECTS MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LOCATED AT A LITTLE BIT MORE THAN 50NM OF THE EDGE), WHICH IS MORE AND MORE ELONGATED. SEE SSMI AT 1438Z. ELNUS IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NOTRHWESTERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES SHIFTING TO THE EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO CURVE SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A WEAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT, THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARD A POLAR TROUGH. IF THE SYSTEM HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS, INCREASING OF THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WOULD NOT ALLOW IT TO REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. BEST WISHES AND HAPPY NEW YEAR.