Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/6/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 6 (ELNUS) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/02 AT 0000 UTC : 19.9S / 39.9E (NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/02 12 UTC: 20.5S/39.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/01/03 00 UTC: 21.4S/39.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/01/03 12 UTC: 22.2S/39.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/01/04 00 UTC: 22.9S/40.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/01/04 12 UTC: 23.5S/40.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/01/05 00 UTC: 24.1S/40.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5 AND CI=2.5+ THE LLCC IS EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO AN IMPORTANT WESTNORTHWESTWARDS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, WITH TYPICAL CIRRUS ARCUS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE. SEE SSMI AT 1755Z AND AMSUB AT 1931Z FOR THE FIX AND THE INSIDE STRUCTURE. ELNUS IS STATIONNARY ON THE NOTRHWESTERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES SHIFTING TO THE EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A WEAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT, THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARD A POLAR TROUGH, WITHOUT JOINING IT. THERE IS AN IMPORTANT UNCERTAINCY ABOUT THE FORECASTED INTENSITY. EVEN IF THE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WEAKEN, LOW LEVEL INFLOWS AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD BECOME LESS FAVORABLE. SST STAY ABOVE 27 CELSIUS DEGREES NORTH OF 26 SOUTH.