Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/6/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-ELNUS) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/02 AT 0600 UTC : 19.9S / 39.9E (NINETEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND THIRTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 200 SO: 150 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/02 18 UTC: 20.6S/39.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/01/03 06 UTC: 21.6S/39.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/01/03 18 UTC: 22.6S/40.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/01/04 06 UTC: 23.3S/40.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2008/01/04 18 UTC: 23.6S/40.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2008/01/05 06 UTC: 24.0S/40.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 AND CI=2.5 THE LLCC IS EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO AN IMPORTANT WESTNORTHWESTWARDS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, WITH TYPICAL CIRRUS ARCUS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE. ELNUS IS STATIONNARY ON THE NOTRHWESTERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES SHIFTING TO THE EAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A WEAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT, THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARD A POLAR TROUGH, WITHOUT JOINING IT. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY.