Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/6/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-ELNUS) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/02 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2S / 40.3E (TWENTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 160 SO: 120 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/03 00 UTC: 20.6S/40.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/01/03 12 UTC: 21.9S/40.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/01/04 00 UTC: 22.8S/40.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/01/04 12 UTC: 23.4S/41.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2008/01/05 00 UTC: 23.7S/41.4E FILLING UP. 72H: 2008/01/05 12 UTC: 23.9S/42.5E FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 AND CI=2.5 THE LLCC IS EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO AN IMPORTANT WESTNORTHWESTWARDS VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. ELNUS HAS BEEN QUITE STATIONNARY DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS ON THE NOTRHWESTERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES SHIFTING TO THE EAST. IT SEEMS TO RESTART SLOWLY SOUSTH-SOUTHEASTWRDS SINCE THE VERY LAST HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A WEAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT, THEN EASTWARDS UP TO TAU 48 AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BELT REBIULD. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY.