Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/6/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-ELNUS) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/03 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5S / 40.4E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 260 SO: 160 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/03 12 UTC: 22.5S/40.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/01/04 00 UTC: 23.4S/40.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/01/04 12 UTC: 24.1S/40.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/01/05 00 UTC: 24.2S/41.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 60H: 2008/01/05 12 UTC: 24.4S/42.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 72H: 2008/01/06 00 UTC: 24.8S/44.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 AND CI=2.5- THE LLCC IS EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO AN IMPORTANT NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE UPPER LEVELS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY. ASCAT 1943Z WINDS SEEM TO BE TOO STRONG REFERRING TO 1800Z WIND 30KT MEASURED ON EUROPA ISLAND. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENSION IS ALSO CALIBRATED MAKING AN OFFSET ON ASCAT WINDS.