Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/6/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-ELNUS) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/03 AT 0600 UTC : 22.5S / 40.8E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 030 SE: 260 SO: 150 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/03 18 UTC: 23.5S/40.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/01/04 06 UTC: 24.0S/41.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/01/04 18 UTC: 24.5S/41.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/01/05 06 UTC: 24.9S/41.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/01/05 18 UTC: 25.5S/42.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2008/01/06 06 UTC: 26.3S/44.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 AND CI=2.5- THE LLCC IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO A RATHER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. ELNUS SHOULD TRACK SOUTHWARDS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A DECREASING WINDSHEAR TO SLIGHTLY REINTENSIFY. BEYOND, LOCATED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES, THE FIRST SHIFTING EASTWARDS AND THE OTHER REBUILDING IN THE WEST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS.