Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/6/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 (EX-ELNUS) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/03 AT 1200 UTC : 23.2S / 41.6E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 0.5/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/04 00 UTC: 23.7S/42.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/01/04 12 UTC: 24.1S/42.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/01/05 00 UTC: 24.7S/42.4E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/01/05 12 UTC: 25.3S/43.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2008/01/06 00 UTC: 25.7S/43.8E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2008/01/06 12 UTC: 26.3S/44.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5+ AND CI=2.0+ THE LLCC IS FULLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO A RATHER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE LAST HOURS, LIKELY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EQUATORWARD EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MADAGASCAR. AVAILABLE NWP DO NOT ANALYSE PROPERLY THE SITUATION AND ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO TRACK THE SYSTEM DUE SOUTH TOWARDS A WEAKNEASS IN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES TILL RANGES 24 TO 36 H AND SOUTHEASTWARDS BEYOND. ELNUS SHOULD TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF A DECREASING WINDSHEAR TO SLIGHTLY REINTENSIFY. BEYOND, LOCATED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL RIDGES, THE FIRST SHIFTING EASTWARDS AND THE OTHER REBUILDING IN THE WEST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS.