Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/6/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 6 (EX-ELNUS) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/03 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.0S / 42.4E (TWENTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/2.0 /W 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/04 06 UTC: 26.7S/44.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/01/04 18 UTC: 28.3S/46.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2008/01/05 06 UTC: 29.5S/48.0E BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2008/01/05 18 UTC: 31.4S/51.2E EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=1.5+ AND CI=2.0 THE LLCC IS FULLY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO A RATHER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WEAKENING. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE LAST HOURS, LIKELY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF AN EQUATORWARD EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER MADAGASCAR. AVAILABLE NWP DO NOT ANALYSE PROPERLY THE SITUATION. THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY ACCELERATED DURING LAST HOURS, AND SEEMS TO TRACKS QUICKLY IN FRONT THE THROUGH, BECOMING EXTRA-TROPICAL