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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/6/20072008
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-ELNUS)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/04 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.0S / 42.1E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/04 18 UTC: 26.2S/42.3E BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2008/01/05 06 UTC: 26.4S/43.0E BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2008/01/05 18 UTC: 26.7S/44.2E EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2008/01/06 06 UTC: 27.4S/46.2E EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2008/01/06 18 UTC: 28.8S/48.0E EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2008/01/07 06 UTC: 30.8S/50.0E EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
A QUICKSCAT PASS AT 03:13Z IS SHOWING THAT EX-ELNIUS HAS BEGUN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITH AN EXTENDING RADIUS OF MAX WIND AND WEAKER WINDS AROUND THE ESTIMATED LLCC. RELOCALISATION HAS BEEN MADE BASED ON THIS QUICKSCAT PASS.

AFTER ACCELERATING LAST NIGHT, SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE SLOW DOWN THIS MORNING. ACTUAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 180/10. IT SEEMS WITH EARLY VIS ANIMATION THAT SPEED IS MUCH SLOWER.

AS RIDGE IS BUIDING BACK IN THE SOUTHERN CHANNEL, MOTION WILL REMAIN SLOW FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON A GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERN TRACK. A DEEP UPPER TO MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATING AND STEERING THE TRACK ON A MORE EASTSOUTHEASTERN TRACK BY DAY 2 AND 3.