Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/6/20072008 1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-ELNUS) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/04 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.3S / 42.6E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/05 00 UTC: 26.6S/42.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2008/01/05 12 UTC: 27.3S/44.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2008/01/06 00 UTC: 27.8S/45.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2008/01/06 12 UTC: 29.7S/47.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2008/01/07 00 UTC: 32.6S/49.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2008/01/07 12 UTC: 35.3S/49.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: EX-ELNIUS HAS BEGUN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SINCE LAST NIGHT WITH AN EXTENDING RADIUS OF MAX WIND AND WEAKER WINDS AROUND THE ESTIMATED LLCC. TWO ROTATING LOW LEVEL MESOSCALE VORTEX HAS BEEN CLEARLY SEEN TODAY IN VIS IMAGERY. THE EASTERN ONE SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN ONE BASED ON LAST SATELLITE PICTURES AND IS USED FOR FIX IN THIS ADVISORY AFTER ACCELERATING LAST NIGHT, SYSTEM HAS SLOW DOWN TODAY. ACTUAL MOTION IS SLOW AND ORIENTED EASTSOUTHEASTWARDS. IT SHOULD ACCELERATE OBVIOUSLY TOMORROW TO CURVE MORE SOUTHWARDS SUNDAY AS IT SHOULD INTERACT WITH A DEVELOPPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW BETWEEN 30S/40S AND SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. IT WILL LOSE ALL ITS TROPICAL CARACTERISTICS BY THAT TIME. IT IS A SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE ECMWF MODEL AND ALSO THE FRENCH MODEL ARPEGE TROPIQUES SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MORE PRONONCED IN THE NORTHERN SEMI CIRCLE THAN IN THE SOUTHERN ONE, SUGGESTING THAT STRONGER WINDS OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN PART. THESE WINDS (25 TO LOCALLY 30 KT) COULD BRUSHED THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR WITHIN TH NEXT 24-36 HOURS WHILE THE CENTER WILL HAVE ITS CLOSEST POINT APPROCH.