Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/6/20072008 1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-ELNUS) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/04 AT 1800 UTC : 26.8S / 42.8E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/05 06 UTC: 27.5S/44.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2008/01/05 18 UTC: 28.2S/45.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2008/01/06 06 UTC: 29.4S/47.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2008/01/06 18 UTC: 31.4S/49.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2008/01/07 06 UTC: 33.7S/49.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2008/01/07 18 UTC: 35.6S/48.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: EX-ELNIUS HAS BEGUN ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION SINCE LAST NIGHT WITH AN EXTENDING RADIUS OF MAX WIND AND WEAKER WINDS NEAR THE LLCC. CURRENT MOTION IS RATHER SLOW AND SOUTHEASTWARDS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD OBVIOUSLY ACCELERATE TOMORROW TO CURVE MORE SOUTHWARDS SUNDAY AS IT SHOULD INTERACT WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT SHOULD DEVELOP TOMORROW BETWEEN 30S/40S AND SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. IT WILL LOSE ALL ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THAT TIME. THIS IS A SCENARIO PROVIDED BY THE ECMWF MODEL AND ALSO THE FRENCH MODEL ARPEGE TROPIQUES SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MORE ENHANCED IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE THAN IN THE SOUTHERN ONE, SUGGESTING THAT STRONGER WINDS OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN PART. THESE WINDS (25 TO LOCALLY 30 KT) COULD CONCERN THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WHILE THE CENTER WILL TRACK AT ITS CLOSEST POINTS APPROACH.