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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/6/20072008
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-ELNUS)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/05 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.7S / 42.7E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/05 12 UTC: 27.1S/44.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2008/01/06 00 UTC: 27.6S/46.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2008/01/06 12 UTC: 29.3S/48.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2008/01/07 00 UTC: 31.7S/49.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2008/01/07 12 UTC: 34.3S/49.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2008/01/08 00 UTC: 36.0S/48.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
EX-ELNIUS UNDERGOES AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITH AN EXTENDING RADIUS OF MAX WIND AND WEAKER WINDS NEAR THE LLCC.

THE SYSTEM SEEMS ALMOST-QUASISTATIONARY, STUCK BETWEEN TWO OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS; THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTHWEST AND THE EASTERN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM SHOULD ACCELERATE TODAY TO CURVE MORE SOUTHWARDS SUNDAY AS IT SHOULD INTERACT WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT SHOULD DEVELOP TOMORROW BETWEEN 30S/40S AND SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. IT WILL LOSE ALL ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BY THAT TIME. THIS IS A SCENARIO PROVIDED BY THE ECMWF MODEL,THE FRENCH MODEL ARPEGE TROPIQUES, AND UKMO.

QUIKSCAT DATA 1425Z SHOW THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MORE ENHANCED IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE THAN IN THE SOUTHERN ONE, SUGGESTING THAT STRONGER WINDS OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN PART. THESE WINDS (25 TO LOCALLY 30 KT) COULD CONCERN THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS WHILE THE CENTER WILL TRACK AT ITS CLOSEST POINTS APPROACH.