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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/6/20072008
1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-ELNUS)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/05 AT 0600 UTC :
26.7S / 43.0E
(TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/05 18 UTC: 26.6S/44.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
24H: 2008/01/06 06 UTC: 27.2S/46.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
36H: 2008/01/06 18 UTC: 29.3S/48.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2008/01/07 06 UTC: 32.4S/48.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2008/01/07 18 UTC: 34.4S/47.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2008/01/08 06 UTC: 35.3S/46.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
HAS COMPLETED ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITH AN EXTENDING RADIUS OF MAX WIND AND WEAKER WINDS NEAR THE LLCC. LLCCIS TOTALLY EXPOSED.

THE SYSTEM HGAS RESTARTED TO TRACK SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARDS DUIRING THE LAST HOURS, NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH SHOULD TRANSIT SOUTH OF IT.
IT SHOULD ACCELERATE AND CURVE SOUTHWARDS ON SUNDAY AS IT SHOULD INTERACT WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW THAT SHOULD DEVELOP BETWEEN 30S/40S SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR. MAIN NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS SCENARIO.