Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/6/20072008 1.A EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION 6 (EX-ELNUS) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/05 AT 1200 UTC : 26.7S / 43.5E (TWENTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/06 00 UTC: 26.7S/45.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 24H: 2008/01/06 12 UTC: 28.3S/47.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 36H: 2008/01/07 00 UTC: 32.4S/47.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2008/01/07 12 UTC: 33.8S/47.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2008/01/08 00 UTC: 35.4S/48.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: EX-ELNIUS HAS COMPLETED ITS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITH STRONGEST WINDS FAR FROM THE CENTER. LLCC IS TOTALLY EXPOSED. WIND'S INTENSITY (15/20KT REACHING LOCALLY 25KT) IS ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO METOP ASCAT DATA OF 0603Z. THIS CIRCULATION SHOULD TRANSIT SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR (GENERATING HEAVY RAINFALLS WHITHIN PERIFERIC CONVECTIV BANDS), BEFORE ACCELERATE AND CURVE SOUTHWARDS ON SUNDAY TOWARDS A LOW WHICH SHOULD DEEPEN BETWEEN ITSELF AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES, NEAR 33S/48S ON THE SUNDAY 06. BOTH LOWS SHOULD THEN MERGE AND EVACUATE SOUTHEASTWARDS. NWP MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS SCENARIO. THIS THE LAST WARNING ISSUED ON THAT SYSTEM.