Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/7/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 7 2.A POSITION 2008/01/07 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.2S / 56.4E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 250 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/07 12 UTC: 18.4S/56.8E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/01/08 00 UTC: 19.8S/56.7E, MAX WIND=020KT , DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THIS WEAK CIRCULATION HAS A POOR POTRENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. IT GENERATES NEVERTHELESS VERY BAD WEATHER CONDITIONS NORTH OF MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS. IT ACTUALLY UNDERGOES SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND DEEP CONVECTION IS ONLY PRESENT IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. LOCATION OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC AT 000Z IS ESTIMATED BY EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LAST MOST RELIABLE SATELLITE DATA (SEE METOP PASS AT 1822Z, WHERE LLCC IS CENTERED BY 16.8S/56.3E). WINDS ESTIMATION IS ALSO ESTIMATED ACCORDING TO THIS SWATH. SITUATION IS POORLY ANALYZED BY NUMERICAL MODELS, ACTUAL FORECAST LOCATION AND INTENSITY ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN. ONLY THE FRENCH MODEL ALADIN ANALYZES THIS LOW. THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.