Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/7/20072008 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 7 2.A POSITION 2008/01/07 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9S / 56.9E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.5/1.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 20 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/08 00 UTC: 19.2S/57.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/01/08 12 UTC: 20.4S/56.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/01/09 00 UTC: 21.6S/55.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, FILLING UP. 48H: 2008/01/09 12 UTC: 22.7S/54.8E FILLING UP. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=1.5+. THIS WEAK CIRCULATION HAS A POOR POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION. IT GENERATES NEVERTHELESS VERY BAD WEATHER CONDITIONS NORTH OF MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS. VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS WEAKENED, THE CENTER IS NOW LOCATED UNDER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF CONVECTION WHICH HAS INTENSIFYED DURING LAST HOURS. LOCATION OF THE CENTRER REMAINS DIFFICULT AS THE SYSTEM IS WEAK AND OF SMALL SIZE. THIS LOW IS POORLY ANALYZED BY NUMERICAL MODELS, ACTUAL FORECAST LOCATION AND INTENSITY ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN. ONLY THE FRENCH MODEL ALADIN ANALYZES THIS LOW, BUT WITH STRONGER INTENSITY. ENVIRONNEMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN UNFAVORABLE, VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAIN MODERATE, WITH A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, BUT NO LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE SOUTH. NO INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURES ARE QUASI-STATIONARY AROUND 70E, WITH A PERSISTANT RIDGE EAST TO THE SYSTEM.THE EXTRATROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWARDS, SOUTH TO THE PERSISTANT HIGH.A RIDGE IS BUILBING SOUTH TO MAURITIUS MORE OR LESS ACCORDING TO EACH MODELE, SPEED AND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND OF THE EVOLUTION OF THIS RIDGE. THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.