Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/8/20072008 1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 8 2.A POSITION 2008/01/24 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5S / 45.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1004 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/24 18 UTC: 14.3S/45.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/01/25 06 UTC: 14.9S/44.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/01/25 18 UTC: 15.2S/43.8E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/01/26 06 UTC: 15.4S/43.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/01/26 18 UTC: 15.6S/43.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/01/27 06 UTC: 15.9S/42.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0- LAST SATELLITE IMAGERIES SHOW A VERY RECENT AND RAPID ORGANIZATION OF DEEP CONVECTION (SINCE THE END OF LAST NIGHT), WITH A WELL DEFINED BUILDING CURVED BAND (SEE MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY SSMI AT 0133Z AND AMSUB AT 0208Z). THIS SYSTEM HAS A GOOD POTENTIEL FOR INTENSIFICATION. NEVERTHELESS, DATA PRESSURE (1008HPA AT 0600Z AT MAYOTTE, WHERE 177 MM OF RAINFALL DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS HAVE BEEN MESURED AT THE DZAOUDZI AIRPORT) AND SCATTEROMETRIC WIND DATA DOESN'T YET ALLOW TO ESTIMATED THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE. AT THIS STAGE, THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.