Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/8/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 2.A POSITION 2008/01/24 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 45.1E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/25 00 UTC: 14.4S/43.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/01/25 12 UTC: 14.7S/43.1E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/01/26 00 UTC: 15.0S/42.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/01/26 12 UTC: 15.5S/41.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/01/27 00 UTC: 16.2S/41.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/01/27 12 UTC: 17.0S/41.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0 CONVECTION HAS RAPIDLY ORGANIZED WITH A WELL DEFINED CURVED BAND PATTERN AT THE END OF LAST NIGHT. MICRO-WAVE (SEE AMSUB AT 09630Z) AND VISIBLE IMAGERIES COULD LEAD TO DT2.5 OR 3.0), BUT ACCORDING TO AVALAIBLE PRESSURE DATA AND WIND DATA (AND MET), THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE AT FT 2.0. LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS GOOD EQUATORWARDS BUT POOR ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD AND VERTICAL WINDSHEAR MORE AND MORE WEAK. SST IS AT 29 DEGRES CELSIUS. MAIN NWP MODELS BADLY ANALYSE THIS RAPID CYCLOGENESIS. THE FORECAST OF THE RSMC IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF'S ONE.