Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/8/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 2.A POSITION 2008/01/24 AT 1800 UTC : 13.9S / 44.9E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/25 06 UTC: 14.2S/44.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/01/25 18 UTC: 14.6S/43.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/01/26 06 UTC: 15.0S/42.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/01/26 18 UTC: 15.6S/42.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/01/27 06 UTC: 16.3S/42.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/01/27 18 UTC: 17.0S/42.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0 CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM HAS DISORGANISED OVER THE NINE LAST HOURS ET DOES NOT SHOW ANY CURVED BAND PATTERN ANYMORE (TRMM 0939Z, AMSRE 1102Z, SSMI 1408Z). LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARDS BUT POOR POLEWARDS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD AS SHOWN BY CIRRUS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS WEAKLY SHEARED. SSTS ARE OF THE ORDER OF 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE TRACKED ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ON MADAGASCAR. THIS RIDGE WEAKENS DURING THE UPCOMING RANGES, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVRONMENT. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS BADLY ANALYSE THIS RAPID CYCLOGENESIS. THE RSMC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF; A SLOW TRACK, WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS THEN SOUTHWARDS, WITH A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.