Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/8/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 2.A POSITION 2008/01/25 AT 0000 UTC : 13.9S / 44.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 0.5/18 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/25 12 UTC: 14.0S/43.6E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/01/26 00 UTC: 14.1S/43.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/01/26 12 UTC: 14.5S/42.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/01/27 00 UTC: 15.1S/41.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/01/27 12 UTC: 15.9S/41.6E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/01/28 00 UTC: 16.8S/41.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0 CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM BARELY CONSOLIDATES. LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARDS BUT POOR POLEWARDS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD AS SHOWN BY CIRRUS. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SSTS ARE OF THE ORDER OF 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE TRACKED ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ON MADAGASCAR. THIS RIDGE WEAKENS DURING THE UPCOMING RANGES, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVRONMENT. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS BADLY ANALYSE THIS RAPID CYCLOGENESIS. THE RSMC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE ECMWF; A SLOW TRACK, WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS THEN SOUTHWARDS, WITH A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.