Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/8/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 2.A POSITION 2008/01/25 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1S / 44.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/25 18 UTC: 14.2S/44.3E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 24H: 2008/01/26 06 UTC: 14.4S/43.8E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/01/26 18 UTC: 14.7S/43.1E, MAX WIND=035KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/01/27 06 UTC: 15.5S/42.4E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/01/27 18 UTC: 16.5S/42.1E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/01/28 06 UTC: 18.0S/42.0E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0 THUNDERY ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED TO THE SYSTEM BARELY ORGANIZES ALTHOUGH A CURVED BAND HAS FORMED IN THE LATEST HOURS IN THE NORTHERN SEMI CIRCLE . LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS WELL ESTABLISHED EQUATORWARDS BUT POOR POLEWARDS. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI CIRCLE BUT SEEMS TO BE MORE LIMITED IN THE SOUTHERN PART. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SSTS ARE OF THE ORDER OF 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS ON THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, A MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE (500-700 HPA) SHOULD DEVELOPP NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR AND SHOULD BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO THE STEERING FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A MORE POLEWARDS TRACK. THIS IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE ECWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND UKMO ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.