Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/8/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 2.A POSITION 2008/01/25 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1S / 44.7E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 110 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 110 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/26 00 UTC: 14.2S/44.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/01/26 12 UTC: 14.5S/43.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/01/27 00 UTC: 15.1S/43.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/01/27 12 UTC: 15.9S/42.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/01/28 00 UTC: 17.2S/42.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/01/28 12 UTC: 18.5S/43.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- OVERALL CONFIGURATION IS STILL IMPROVING BOTH ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA (TMI PASS AT 08:44Z) WITH A WELL DEFINED LLCC ON THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL. INTENSITY IS UPGRADED TO 30 KT (TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS). AT 12:00Z, 24 HOURS PRESSURE FALLING IS STRONGER AT MAYOTTE ISLAND PASSING FROM -1 HPA (09:00Z) TO -2.2 HPA. LOW LEVEL INFLOW IS STILL DEFICIENT POLEWARD BUT COULD BE A LITTLE BIT BETTER TOMORROW WITH A TRANSCIENT RIDGE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. GRADUAL STRENGHENNING IS FORECAST OVER THE PERIOD AND TROPICAL STORM STATUS SHOULD BE REACHED TOMORROW. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI CIRCLE BUT SEEMS TO BE MORE LIMITED IN THE SOUTHERN PART. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SSTS ARE OF THE ORDER OF 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. NWP MODELS OF 00Z SHOW NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GLOBAL GUIDANCE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, A MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE (500-700 HPA) SHOULD DEVELOPP NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR AND SHOULD BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO THE STEERING FLOW. ON THE WESTERN THEN SOUTWESTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TAKE A MORE SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK. THIS IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE ECWF, ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND UKMO ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.