Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/8/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAME) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/25 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1S / 44.7E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/26 06 UTC: 14.3S/43.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/01/26 18 UTC: 14.8S/43.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/01/27 06 UTC: 15.7S/42.7E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/01/27 18 UTC: 16.7S/42.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/01/28 06 UTC: 17.7S/42.9E, MAX WIND=065KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2008/01/28 18 UTC: 18.7S/43.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0- RAPID INTESIFICATION DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, WITH CONSOLIDATING LLCC AND DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING OVER IT AS A CURVED BAND (OF MORE THAN ONE COMPLETE TOUR, SEE SSMI AT 1354 AND 1644). FAME SHOULD GO ON INTENSIFYING, WITH AN IMPROVIG SOUTHWARDS LOW LEVEL INFLOW, DUE TO A TRANSITING RIDGE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS RATHER GOOD (BUT NOT MORE). THE ENVIRONMENT IS WEAKLY SHEARED. SST ARE CLOSE TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ON THE EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ON SATURDAY NIGHT, A MID-LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE (500-700 HPA) SHOULD DEVELOPP NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR AND SHOULD LEAD THE STEERING FLOW. ON THE WESTERN THEN SOUTWESTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TAKE A MORE SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK. THIS SCENARIO IS CLOSE TO ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECAST.