Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/8/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAME) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/26 AT 0000 UTC : 14.1S / 44.7E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/26 12 UTC: 14.2S/44.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/01/27 00 UTC: 14.7S/44.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/01/27 12 UTC: 15.5S/44.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2008/01/28 00 UTC: 16.5S/44.0E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2008/01/28 12 UTC: 17.7S/44.1E OVERLAND. 72H: 2008/01/29 00 UTC: 19.0S/44.7E OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0 FAME SHOULD GO ON INTENSIFYING, WITH AN IMPROVING SOUTHWARDS LOW LEVEL INFLOW, DUE TO A TRANSITING RIDGE FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. NEVERTHELESS, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS ONLY MODERATE : POOR IN THE SOUTH AND RATHER GOOD ON THE EQUATOR SIDE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS WEAKLY SHEARED. SST ARE CLOSE TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD THEN BE RATHER SLOW. NWP MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT, AND CHANGE THEIR SCENARIO FROM A "RUN" TO ANOTHER. RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS, WITH THE BEST CONFIDENCE FOR ECMWF AND UKMO GUIDANCE, WHICH ARE THE BEST ON ANALYSIS. FOR THE MOMENT, FAME IS IN A WEEK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IT SHOULD START TO TRACK SOUTHWARDS WITH A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF IT. THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE DEPENDS ON THE TRACK AND THE EVENTUAL LANDFALL OVER MALAGASY COASTS.