Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/8/20072008 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAME) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/26 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8S / 44.8E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 130 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/26 18 UTC: 14.1S/44.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2008/01/27 06 UTC: 14.8S/44.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2008/01/27 18 UTC: 15.9S/45.4E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2008/01/28 06 UTC: 17.4S/45.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, OVERLAND. 60H: 2008/01/28 18 UTC: 18.4S/46.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND. 72H: 2008/01/29 06 UTC: 18.5S/48.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0 ET CI=3.5- FAME HAS INTENSIFYED YESTERDAY BUT LAST HIGH-RES VISIBLE METEOSAT9 IMAGERY REVEALS A LESS GOOD ORGANIZATION (PROBABLY TEMPORARY) SINCE FEW HOURS. UNDERGOING OPPOSITE STERRING FLOW IN THE MID-LEVEL (REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGHS IN THE SOUTH AND EXISTING HIGHS IN THE NORTH), SYSTEM REMAINS QUASI-STATIONNARY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS LIGHTLY SHEARED. SST ARE CLOSE TO 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. NWP MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT, AND CHANGE THEIR SCENARIO FROM A "RUN" TO ANOTHER. RSMC FORECAST IS A CONSENSUS, WITH THE BEST CONFIDENCE FOR ECMWF AND CONW GUIDANCE. DESCENDING SOUTHWARDS, WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. THE POSSIBILITY OF REACHING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE DEPENDS ON THE TRACK AND THE EVENTUAL LANDFALL OVER MALAGASY COASTS.