Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/8/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAME) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/26 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1S / 44.7E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 982 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 130 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/27 00 UTC: 14.4S/44.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/01/27 12 UTC: 15.3S/45.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2008/01/28 00 UTC: 16.6S/45.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2008/01/28 12 UTC: 18.0S/46.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND. 60H: 2008/01/29 00 UTC: 18.5S/47.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 72H: 2008/01/29 12 UTC: 17.8S/48.7E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0 - FAME IS LITTLE SYSTEM. IT HAS INTENSIFYED WITHIN THE FRIDAY 25 AND IS BECOMING AGAIN A NEW PHASIS OF INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAKING A BREAK WITHIN THE END OF THE NIGHT. HIGH-RES VISIBLE CHANNEL OF METEOSAT9 (MSG) SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN WRAPPED AROUND 11 TENGHS. LLCC REMAINS QUASI-STATIONNARY. IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS WITHIN 6 TO 12 HOURS UNDERGOING STEERING FLOW OF MID-LEVEL HIGHS IN ITS NORTHEAST (REFER ECMWF 700HPA AND 500HPA)AND KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING WITHIN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT BEFORE ITS LANDFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE FORECASTED TOMORROW EVENING.