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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/8/20072008
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAME)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/26 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3S / 44.8E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 130
50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/27 06 UTC: 14.9S/44.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2008/01/27 18 UTC: 16.1S/44.9E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2008/01/28 06 UTC: 17.5S/45.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2008/01/28 18 UTC: 19.0S/46.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND.
60H: 2008/01/29 06 UTC: 19.8S/48.3E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATED.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T AND CI=4.0 -
FAME IS A LITTLE SYSTEM. IT HAS INTENSIFYED WITHIN THE FRIDAY 25, HOWEVER LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS A WARMING OF CLOUDS TOP AND SSMI PASS OF 16:29Z SHOWS NO SIGNIFICENT GAIN IN INTENSIFICATION OF THE INNER CORE. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE SYSTEM BEGIN TO SUFFER FROM ITS LONG STATIONNARY POSITION.
LLCC REMAINS QUASI-STATIONNARY BUT A SLOW SOUTHWARDS MOTION MAY HAVE BEGIN (NEED TO BE CONFIRMED AT THE 00Z ADVISORY) . IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS UNDERGOING STEERING FLOW OF MID-LEVEL HIGHS IN ITS NORTHEAST (REFER ECMWF 700HPA AND 500HPA) UNTIL ITS LANDFALL OVER NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE FORECASTED DURING THE NEXT NIGHT. IT COULD RESTART ON INTENSIFICATION OVER HIGHER SST AND REACHED TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE WEAKENS RAPIDLY OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAINS OF MALAGASY.