Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/8/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAME) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/27 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1S / 44.4E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 982 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 130 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/27 12 UTC: 16.2S/44.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/01/28 00 UTC: 17.5S/44.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2008/01/28 12 UTC: 19.2S/46.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND. 48H: 2008/01/29 00 UTC: 19.9S/47.9E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0 SOME GOOD MICROWAVE FIX (TMI 17:36Z, WINDSAT 15:22Z) HAVE HELPED TO RELOCALIZE CEN CENTER LAST NIGHT. SINCI IT HAS ALSO BEEN SEEN ON IR IMAGERY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS COLAPSED NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE NIGHT DUE TO COLD SST AS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN STATIONNARY FOR AT LEAST 36 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. LLCC AFTER DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARDS A LITTLE BIT IS TRACKING NOW SOUTHWARDS TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE WHERE LANDFALL IS FORECAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF CAP SAINT ANDRE . FAME IS UNDERGOING STEERING FLOW OF MID-LEVEL HIGHS IN ITS NORTHEAST (REFER ECMWF 700HPA AND 500HPA). AFTER THAT, THERE IS SOME DISPERSION IN NWP SOLUTIONS ... ONE AS UKMO BRING THE SYSTEM BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, ONE AS ECMWF OR GFDL BRING THE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF MALAGASY ... AS FAME REMAINS A SMALL SYSTEM, OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN OF MALAGASY BY 48 HOURS AS FAME IS NOW MOVING, THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SYSTEM TO REACH MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE (65 KT) BEFORE LANDFALL WITH SOME WARMER SST AS ENVIRONMENTALS CONDITIONS REMAINS GOOD.