Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/8/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAME) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/27 AT 0600 UTC : 15.4S / 44.4E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 976 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 130 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/27 18 UTC: 16.4S/44.4E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2008/01/28 06 UTC: 18.0S/45.0E OVERLAND. 36H: 2008/01/28 18 UTC: 19.2S/46.2E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CORRECTED FOR DVORAK ANALYSIS : D 0.5/12 H T AND CI=4.0+ CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INTENSIFYED NEAR THE CENTER, DUE TO THE RESTART OF DEPLACEMENT OVER WARMER SST. INTENSITY IS NOW AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, COULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE LANDFALL. LLCC IS TRACKING NOW SOUTHWARDS TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE WHERE LANDFALL IS FORECAST THIS EVENING OR IN THE NIGHT SOUTH TO CAP SAINT ANDRE . FAME IS UNDERGOING STEERING FLOW OF MID-LEVEL HIGHS IN ITS NORTHEAST (REFER ECMWF 700HPA AND 500HPA). AFTER THAT, THERE IS SOME DISPERSION IN NWP SOLUTIONS ... ONE AS UKMO BRING THE SYSTEM BACK OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, ONE AS ECMWF OR GFDL BRING THE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF MALAGASY ... AS FAME REMAINS A SMALL SYSTEM, OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR DISSIPATION OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN OF MALAGASY BY 48 HOURS