Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/8/20072008 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 8 (FAME) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/27 AT 1200 UTC : 16.2S / 44.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FOUR DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 130 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/28 00 UTC: 17.6S/44.7E OVERLAND. 24H: 2008/01/28 12 UTC: 19.0S/45.8E OVERLAND. 36H: 2008/01/29 00 UTC: 20.1S/46.7E DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0+ CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INTENSIFYED NEAR THE CENTER, DUE TO THE RESTART OF DEPLACEMENT OVER WARMER SST. INTENSITY IS NOW AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY, COULD REACH TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE BEFORE LANDFALL. LLCC IS TRACKING NOW SOUTHWARDS TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE WHERE LANDFALL IS FORECAST THIS EVENING OR IN THE NIGHT SOUTH TO CAP SAINT ANDRE . FAME IS UNDERGOING STEERING FLOW OF MID-LEVEL HIGHS IN ITS NORTHEAST (REFER ECMWF 700HPA AND 500HPA). AFTER THAT, AS FAME REMAINS A SMALL SYSTEM, IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN OF MALAGASY UP TO 36 HOURS