Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/8/20072008 1.A OVERLAND DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAME) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/28 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 45.0E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : / 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/28 12 UTC: 19.1S/46.1E, MAX WIND=030KT, OVERLAND. 24H: 2008/01/29 00 UTC: 19.8S/48.2E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND. 36H: 2008/01/29 12 UTC: 20.2S/49.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/01/30 00 UTC: 20.4S/50.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2008/01/30 12 UTC: 20.6S/51.3E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2008/01/31 00 UTC: 21.2S/52.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: FAME HAS TEMPORARY REACHED TROPICAL CYCLONE MINIMAL STAGE BEFORE ITS LANDFALL AT ABOUT 1300Z NEAR BESALAMPY. IT IS NOW EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN WITHIN ITS TRIP OVER MALAGASY DUE TO ITS SMALL SIZE. THE RESIDUAL LOW COULD GO BACK OVER SEA WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS ON THE EASTERN MALAGASY COASTLINE BETWEEN TOAMASINA AND FARAFANGANA. IT COULD SO REACH AGAIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE.