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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/8/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 8 (EX-FAME)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/29 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6S / 51.2E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/29 18 UTC: 20.1S/51.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
24H: 2008/01/30 06 UTC: 20.6S/52.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION.
36H: 2008/01/30 18 UTC: 21.1S/51.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
48H: 2008/01/31 06 UTC: 20.9S/51.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING.
60H: 2008/01/31 18 UTC: 20.3S/51.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.0-

EX-FAME HAS CAME BACK OVER SEAS AND THE RESIDUAL CIRCULATION IS LIGHTLY RE-ORGANIZING, AT A WEAK INTENSITY.
THE CENTER OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS TRACKING EASTWARDS. IT SHOULD CURVE SOUTHEASTWARDS AND SLOW DOWN, REACHING TEMPORARILLY THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSITY. THEN IT SHOULD BEEN CATCHED IN THE CIRCULATION OF GULA, WICH SHOULD ABSORBE IT WITHIN THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS.