Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/8/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAME) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/29 AT 1200 UTC : 20.3S / 52.0E (TWENTY DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/30 00 UTC: 21.2S/53.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/01/30 12 UTC: 22.3S/54.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/01/31 00 UTC: 23.5S/54.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/01/31 12 UTC: 22.3S/52.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2008/02/01 00 UTC: 20.5S/53.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 THE SYSTEM IS RE-ORGANIZING AND INTENSIFYING, TRACKING EASTSOUTHEASTWARDS, OVER THE SOUTHREN EDGE OF A MIDLEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR SEYCHELLES ISLANDS, WHICH SHOULD GO ON GENERATING THE STEERING FLOW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST AT THE TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY, BUT THE LAST SATELLITE IMADERIES SHOW A CLEAR EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. IT SHOULD STOP ITS TRACK JUST SOUTH OF REUNION ISLAND, OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MIDLEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHEAST OF MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS (AND WHICH SHOULD MAKE GULA TRACK SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARDS AT THE SAME MOMENT). THE TWO SYSTEMS, LOCATED OVER EACH SIDES OF MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS, SHOULD THEN INTERACT (FUJIWHARA EFFECT) AS SOON AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE ONE FROM EACHOTHER (500 OR 700 KM, BUT NOT BEFORE BECAUSE THEY ARE RATHER SMALL). FAME SHOULD THEN CURVE GLOBALLY NORTHWARDS, WEAKENING, MERGING AND ABSORBATED BY THE MAIN CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GULA.