Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/8/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAME) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/29 AT 1800 UTC : 21.3S / 52.8E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/30 06 UTC: 22.5S/53.3E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/01/30 18 UTC: 23.5S/52.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2008/01/31 06 UTC: 22.6S/51.7E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/01/31 18 UTC: 21.3S/51.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 60H: 2008/02/01 06 UTC: 20.0S/52.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 THE SYSTEM IS IN LA REUNION'S RADAR SCOPE ALLOWING A RATHER ACCURATE POSITION. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS, ALONG THE SOUTHREN EDGE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR SEYCHELLES ISLANDS. HOWEVER ON THE LAST RADAR IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO CURVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTRED IN THE EAST. EX-FAME COULD THEN UNDERGO GULA'S INFLUENCE AND CURVE GLOBALLY NORTHWARDS, WEAKENING, MERGING AND ABSORBATED BY THE MAIN CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE GULA. EX-FAME CURRENTLY INDERGOES A RATHER STRONG NORTHWESTERN SHEAR OBVIOUS ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT DOES NOT ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN.