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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/8/20072008
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAME)

2.A POSITION 2008/01/30 AT 0000 UTC :
21.1S / 52.4E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2008/01/30 12 UTC: 21.2S/51.9E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2008/01/31 00 UTC: 20.8S/51.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE.
36H: 2008/01/31 12 UTC: 20.2S/51.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING.
48H: 2008/02/01 00 UTC: 19.8S/52.2E DISSIPATED.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=2.0 CI=2.5
THE SYSTEM IS IN LA REUNION'S RADAR SCOPE ALLOWING A RATHER ACCURATE POSITION.
ON THE LAST RADAR IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM SEEMS HAVE STARTED A LOOP.
EX-FAME CURRENTLY INDERGOES A RATHER STRONG NORTHWESTERN SHEAR OBVIOUS ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IS WEAKENING. IT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.