Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/8/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAME) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/30 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.3S / 52.4E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/30 18 UTC: 22.3S/52.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/01/31 06 UTC: 22.9S/51.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/01/31 18 UTC: 21.9S/50.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/02/01 06 UTC: 21.1S/51.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2008/02/01 18 UTC: 21.8S/53.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2008/02/02 06 UTC: 23.5S/55.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5- EX-FAME CURRENTLY INDERGOES A NORTHWESTERN SHEAR AND THE CENTER IS CLOSE TO THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LLCC REMAINS QUASI-STATIONNARY AND IS EXPECTED STAYING IN THIS SAME AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS A TROUGH GENERATED IN THE WAKE OF GULA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEUTRAL WITHIN THE ALL RANGES OF THIS FORECAST, SO EX-FAME IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY.