Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/8/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAME) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/30 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4S / 53.1E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/31 00 UTC: 21.8S/53.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/01/31 12 UTC: 21.8S/54.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/02/01 00 UTC: 22.4S/55.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2008/02/01 12 UTC: 23.3S/56.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, DISSIPATING. 60H: 2008/02/02 00 UTC: 25.0S/58.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 72H: 2008/02/02 12 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5- EX-FAME CURRENTLY INDERGOES A NORTHWESTERN SHEAR AND THE CENTER IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE MAIN DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LLCC IS EXPECTED SHIFTING GLOBALLY ON ITS SLOW EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS A TROUGH GENERATED IN THE WAKE OF GULA, WHERE IT IS EXPECTED DISSIPATING. AFTER TAKING BENEFITS OF A BETTER ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE END OF THE NIGHT, ACTUAL CONDITIONS ARE UNFAVOURABLE AGAIN. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEUTRAL (SOMETIMES MORE FAVOURABLE, SOME TIMES UNFAVOURABLE) WITHIN THE ALL RANGES OF THIS FORECAST, SO EX-FAME IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY.