Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/8/20072008 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 (EX-FAME) 2.A POSITION 2008/01/30 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.5S / 53.3E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 070 SE: 070 SO: 070 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2008/01/31 06 UTC: 21.6S/53.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2008/01/31 18 UTC: 21.6S/55.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2008/02/01 06 UTC: 22.5S/56.1E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2008/02/01 18 UTC: 23.7S/57.5E, MAX WIND=020KT, DISSIPATING. 60H: 2008/02/02 06 UTC: 25.4S/59.1E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=2.5- EX-FAME CURRENTLY INDERGOES A NORTHWESTERN SHEAR EVEN IF DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPP NEAR THE CENTER. LLCC IS EXPECTED SHIFTING GLOBALLY ON ITS SLOW EAST-SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS A TROUGH GENERATED IN THE WAKE OF GULA, WHERE IT IS EXPECTED DISSIPATING. A MORE EASTWARDS MOTION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 24H TO 36H WHEN GULA WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.